I am going to start off with the number one player on the initial 2026 draft board. While the stacks are very fluid and where we rank prospects are not relevant at the moment, it is important to know Nussmeier would have been my personal QB1 in the 2025 NFL Draft had he come out. Nussmeier returned to LSU for “unfinished business” but the key reason is the fact he has started just 14 games in college to this point. The son of Saints Offensive Coordinator and former NFL quarterback Doug Nussmeier, Garrett sat behind Jayden Daniels for both 2023 and 2024. Last fall was the first time he left camp as the number one guy and he led the Tigers to a 9-4 record as the team was in a transition year after losing multiple first rounders to the NFL.
Nussmeier’s tape is filled with NFL throws. His anticipation and timing were the two standout traits as he processed through progressions quickly, threw receivers open, and consistently placed the ball where only his target could reach it. The intelligence he shows in all game situations stands out. When it comes to how he stacked up statistically compared to the first five quarterbacks taken in the 2025 draft, here is where he ranked (out of six):
Attempts: 1st (525)
Yards Per Attempt: 6th (7.7)
TD: 4th (29)
INT: 1st (12)
Adjusted Completion %: 6th (71.4)
There is more to the evaluation than numbers but the trend was he did not rank well when looking strictly at stats. Nussmeier’s tape has too many mistakes, yes. But for a first-year starter in the SEC with the flashes he has shown, he is the current projection for the top spot. How come?
- Anticipation throws
- Accuracy down the field
- Pocket maneuverability
- Toughness
Anticipation throws: Over the 10 games of Nussmeier’s that I watched in 2024, he threw (by far) the most throws into space without a receiver open (and still resulting in completions). While some wait a second too long for the receiver to free himself, he lets it loose early which maximizes the potential of a play design.
Accuracy down the field: When it comes to touch and accuracy, Nussmeier has a natural and consistent ability to drop the ball in a bucket. While his receivers in 2024 did him no favors, only one quarterback listed above had more big time throws on 20+ yard passes (Ward). He had less turnover worthy passes when throwing that distance, however, than the number one overall pick, Cam Ward.
Pocket Maneuverability: When comparing to the first five picks at the position from the 2024 class, Nussmeier experienced the highest number of dropbacks under pressure. He was, however, the only one of the bunch with just one sack allowed that was credited to the quarterback. The mobile Jalen Milroe, for example, created nine sacks. Nussmeier excels at anticipating, feeling, and reacting to pressure while also playing on time.
Toughness: Rewind to November 30, 2024. In a home game against Oklahoma with the score 7-7 at the start of the second quarter, Nussmeier took a big hit from future NFL draft pick Mason Thomas Jr. who cleanly beat left tackle Will Campbell. “Nussmeier down. Right shoulder. My guess is collar bone. He could barely stand/walk he was in so much pain” was the text I sent Dane Brugler from The Athletic. Then just like that, Nussmeier is back in before halftime (with the score 17-17) and completes four straight passes including an on-the-money 40-yard touchdown all within 45 seconds of game clock in a two-minute drill. LSU went on to win by 20. This is a tough-guy gamer in every sense of the word.
Very few thought Jayden Daniels would be a first rounder entering 2023. Nobody thought Joe Burrow would be a first rounder entering 2019. Nussmeier is next on the list from this program, Hop on board while it’s early.