NFL Head Coach Candidates: Part 1 of 4

Antonio Pierce / Age 47 / Defense Bias

-4 Seasons as a High School Coach 

-4 Seasons as a College Coach (2 seasons as a defensive coordinator)

-3 seasons as a NFL coach (1.5 seasons as a Head Coach)

-Coaching Tree: Josh McDaniel 

Head Coach Career Record (Las Vegas Raiders): 9-17

PROS

1. Pierce went from an undrafted free agent with the Washington Redskins in 2021 to a Pro Bowl and Super Bowl winning linebacker with the New York Giants. He has been considered an overlooked underdog several times over his career and came out on the other end a winner via both his performance and leadership. 

2. He had a quick ascent from high school coach to being hired by an NFL team within an eight-year window. 

3. Pierce was named the interim Head Coach in 2023 after the team’s 3-5 start. He ended the year with a 5-4 record at the helm and was given an opportunity to be the Head Coach in 2024, all with a poor roster.

CONS

1. Pierce was considered the ring leader of an illegal recruiting scheme at Arizona State during the COVID period which included tampering, failure to cooperate with officials, and illegal financial contributions to recruits. He received an eight-year show-cause penalty which severely limits any college program that hires him if he goes back to college. 

2. Pierce does not have a wide net to cast when it comes to building an NFL coaching staff. He heavily leaned on old-time coaches who have not been as involved in the league in recent years like Joe Philbin, Marvin Lewis, and Norv Turner.

3. Players quickly became bothered by Pierce’s lack of ability to conduct an efficient and effective weekly flow during the season. There were reports of players being frustrated with a poor practice schedule, lack of organization, and wasting time.

In Conclusion:

Pierce was a guy that players initially liked because he was “one of them” and loved to bring swagger and attitude to the locker room but in reality, he was in over his head both during preparation and on gameday without a strong supporting cast and a weak roster. 

Brian Flores / Age 44 / Defense Bias 

-4 seasons as a scout 

-18 seasons as an NFL coach (3 as a Head Coach, 3 as a coordinator)

-Coaching Tree: Bill Belichick 

Head Coach Career Record (Miami Dolphins): 24-25

PROS

1. In his first season as the Head Coach in Miami with a depleted roster, Flores started off 0-7 while allowing an average of score of 34-11. From there, the team went 5-4 with the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback who, by the way, led the team in rushing with 243 yards for the season. It truly was one of the worst rosters in the NFL (if not the worst) and he fought back from a nightmare first seven weeks. The next season following a 1-3 start, Miami won 10 games.

2. He won three Super Bowls as a part of the defensive coaching staff in New England. He then helped turn around the Pittsburgh defense and turned the Minnesota defense into a top-ten unit. Success and a tough-guy identity on the defensive side of the ball have been present at each of his stops. 

3. His time in Pittsburgh working under Tomlin changed his perspective on coach-player relations and currently receives a lot of praise for his tactics on and off the field from players. He appears to have acknowledged and improved his previous shortcomings with players and has developed both rookies and veterans at a high level. 

CONS

1. Currently Flores is involved in a lawsuit against both the NFL and several teams for racial discrimination. No matter what, that will muddy the waters and be a major distraction to the franchise that hires him. 

2. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was on the receiving end of Flores’ harsh coaching style, hearing words like “you suck” and “you don’t belong in the NFL” among other things. The question of whether or not he can help raise a young quarterback in the NFL is still very much up in the air. 

3. The track record of the Bill Belichick coaching tree once they leave town to take over the lead role has been poor. Bill O’Brien is the only one with a .500+ record and that was only by two games. Names like Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennell, Eric Mangini, Joe Judge, Jerod Mayo, Brian Daboll, and Matt Patricia struggled mightily once out from underneath Belichick's umbrella. 

In Conclusion:

Flores is a proven defensive mastermind capable of creating identity with both veterans rookies alike but the legal issues and lack of rapport with quarterbacks are significant question marks

Arthur Smith / Age 43 / Offense Bias

-2 seasons as a college coach 

-17 seasons as an NFL coach (3 seasons as a Head Coach, 4 seasons as a coordinator)

-Coaching Tree: Ken Whisenhunt

Head Coach Career Record (Atlanta Falcons): 21-30

PROS

1. Smith helped turn around the offense in Tennessee. From 2014-2018, The Titans ranked 30th, 28th, 14th, 19th, and 27th in points scored. When Smith took over the Offensive Coordinator role for two seasons in 2019, they ranked 10th and 4th in points scored. It was the best offense in franchise history since 1991(Warren Moon’s 4,690-yard season). 

2. He is known for his creative run schemes and effective playaction attacks that take a lot of pressure off the quarterback but still capable of explosive plays. In 2020, running back Derrick Henry won Offensive Player of the Year via a 2,000 yard season but what many do not remember is Ryan Tannehill’s 33-touchdown performance in addition with just seven interceptions. 

3. The two years Smith was calling the plays in Tennessee, they ranked first and second respectively in red zone offense. Tennessee was 23rd and 19th the two previous seasons. He has had success as a playcaller and schemer but has never worked with a great quarterback and anyone that would even rank in the top half. But he knows how to work the run game and build creativity off it if they can produce there.

CONS

1. Smith failed to develop a young quarterback in Desmond Ridder. While that cannot be pinned solely on him, he’s only had success with veterans while also working with an All-Pro caliber running back who continued to succeed without him. 

2. Smith has been a playcaller for five straight seasons since the strong 2020 in Tennessee. He has not come close to replicating that performance. While he has the respect from other coordinators when it comes to the run game and playaction, his pass scheme leaves a lot to be desired. In an era where creative and innovative pass games rule the league, Smith does not appear to be a high-ceiling play designer. 

3. Analysts and fans in Atlanta became disenchanted with his thin-skinned nature with the media. There were repeated signs of minimal poise in high pressure/stressful situations. 

In Conclusion:

Smith was a hot-shot 37-year old playcaller who everyone wanted to get their hands on after the Covid season. His tenure in Atlanta lacked a true quarterback and he likely was not really ready at that time to be the head guy.

Jim Schwartz / Age 59 / Defense Bias

-4 seasons as a college coach 

-32 seasons as an NFL coach (5 seasons as a Head Coach, 17 seasons as a coordinator)

-Coaching Tree: Jeff Fisher 

-Head Coach Record (Detroit Lions): 29-51

PROS

1. There are not many coaches in the NFL with this kind of resume. In his 17 seasons as a coordinator, Schwartz has had six top ten defenses with his speciality coming against the run. He won a Super Bowl in 2017 and had a lot of postseason success, notably with Philadelphia. 

2. In his five-year stint as the Detroit Head Coach, Schwartz improved season after season after season for from 2009 to 2011, earning a playoff bid in ‘11 which was the first time for the franchise in 12 years. 

3. Nearly all of his jobs included an All-Pro defensive lineman and he has a strong reputation for player development, especially up front. His coaching network is as wide as anyone’s.

CONS

1. Schwartz created a hot-head reputation as a Head Coach for the Lions, getting into altercations with fans and being penalized for aggressively throwing a challenge flag for example. Players said it bled into an undisciplined locker room.

2. His defensive schemes are overly reliant on front-four pressure, as he always blitzes near a league-low. If he does not have the elite pass rusher up front, his gameplans are predictable and vulnerable. 

3. As a Head Coach in Detroit, he had Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson but never got the defense to perform in the the top fifty percentile, making the postseason just once.

In Conclusion:

There is a general thought Schwartz proved to be one of the many solid coordinators who cannot handle the duties of being a CEO for a football team. His worst-performing defenses for a five-year span came as a Head Coach and he did not inspire hope for those who want a more disciplined approach.

Jon Gruden / Age 62 / Offense Bias 

-5 seasons as college coach 

-1 season as NFL Europe coach 

-22 seasons as NFL coach (15 as Head Coach, 3 as coordinator)

Coaching Tree: Mike Holmgren 

Record as Head Coach: 117-112 (Tampa Bay & Oakland/Las Vegas - 2 stints)

PROS

1. Gruden is the typical football lifer who began his coaching career in 1990 as a 23-year old and was one of the youngest NFL Head Coaches in history when the Raiders hired him in 1998. He was viewed as a whiz kid with a unique but complicated offense, making the AFC Championship in his third year and winning the AFC West a season later. Tampa Bay then traded two first round picks, two second round picks, and $8 million cash for him which led to a Super Bowl win 11 months later.

2. He is considered a very good quarterback mentor who blends scheme, relationships, leadership, and communication tactics to get the most out of them. He revitalized Rich Gannon’s career and won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson. Derek Carr’s best seasons came under him. He is not overly hard on them nor is he too soft. 

3. He has had a decade of exposure to the media side of things which can offer a wider perspective to the job itself. From 2009-2017, he worked as an ESPN Monday Night football commentator and a quarterback analyst for NFL Draft coverage which kept him very involved in the game, process, and evaluation. 

CONS

1. Gruden was forced to resign from the Raiders in October of 2021 after leaked emails showed him using terms that were considered racist, homophobic, and misogynistic. He is involved in a lawsuit against the NFL and Roger Goodell which can muddy the waters and force drama on to the organization that hires him.

2. Some consider the Tampa Bay defense the primary reason why he had a successful run with the club. In his seven years with the club, his offenses were never top-half in the league but the defenses were always top five. 

3. Gruden had final say over roster decisions during his second stint with the Raiders. They had multiple early round busts in the NFL Draft and he has never proven to be effective in that area. 

In Conclusion:

Gruden took a 10-year hiatus from coaching and made himself more popular than he should be but at the end of day he is an older coach with baggage and limited offensive success. He has never developed a young quarterback to a high level of success and does not have a solid record in drafting. 

Mike McCarthy / Age 62 / Offense Bias 

-6 seasons as a college coach 

-31 seasons as an NFL coach (18 as a Head Coach, 6 as a coordinator)

Coaching Tree: Marty Schottenheimer 

-Head Coach record: 174-112-2 (Green Bay Packers & Dallas Cowboys)

PROS

1. McCarthy ranks 15th all time in wins as a Head Coach. He would rank fifth among active coaches if he gets another job and currently ranks ahead of guys like Bill Parcells, Pete Carroll, Mike Shanahan, Tom Coughlin, and Mike Holmgren. 

2. He has vast experience with multiple All-Pro quarterbacks. Veterans Dak Prescott and Brett Favre, and a young Aaron Rodgers who grew up in the NFL under McCarthy. Rodgers went from late first rounder to two-time MVP and Super Bowl winner within seven years of being named starter. 

3. Following a season out of the NFL, McCarthy came back into the league and won just six games in his first year with Dallas. Then, three-straight 12-win seasons, two NFC-East titles, multiple top-offenses, and walked away from two seasons with the highest scoring team in football. 

CONS

1. As successful as he’s  been, having just one Super Bowl (15 years ago) to his name with a career full of working with elite quarterbacks can overshadow his impressive regular season win total. His postseason record with Dallas was 1-3 with an 0-2 record at home. 

2. McCarthy’s teams in Dallas had an undisciplined label attached to them from the media who covered them daily. He was often accused of hosting “Country Club” training camps and lacked roster cohesion.

3. McCarthy’s network is broad but he almost always struggled to find the right defensive staff. He has had just one defense who finished top five in points allowed and they happened to win the Super Bowl that season (Dom Capers was the Defensive Coordinator). While he does not need to be overly involved on that side of the ball, there are decades of examples that prove he just can’t seem to find consistency on defense.

In Conclusion:

McCarthy is a high level regular season coach who knows how to get the most out of a quarterback and reach the postseason but struggles to get over the hump and raise the bar against the best. The league has had a lot of exposure to him and when it matters most and he has not risen to the occasion.