Unless you are in a two quarterback fantasy football league, there is no reason to select a quarterback earlier than round three of your draft. The position is deep and there has been turnover in the ranks because many of the young quarterbacks are prepared to start and make a statistical impact much earlier in their careers. Also, there is a dearth of quality players at the other fantasy football positions like running back and wide receiver. It’s more important to get the best players at these positions and hold off drafting a quarterback until the middle to late rounds.
As most fantasy football leagues are twelve-team leagues, we’ll focus on the top twelve quarterbacks and then rank the best of the rest as back-ups.
(1) Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Every season, Aaron Rodgers is in the conversation for the number one or number two ranked fantasy football quarterback. That’s because he’s expected to throw the football 520-plus times, a fete he has accomplished six times when he has played all sixteen games in a season. He’s also thrown for 4,000-plus yards five out of six times when he’s played all sixteen games. Rodgers has thrown less than thirty TDs just once in a full season. Add to that an expected 250-plus yards rushing and it’s easy to see why he is viewed as the number one quarterback in fantasy football each season. Rodgers shouldn’t miss Jordy Nelson.
(2) Tom Brady, Patriots
Tom Brady’s production is very similar to Aaron Rodgers except he doesn’t run the football as effectively as Rodgers. Based on what we saw of his arm last season, Brady should have another good season in him despite turning forty years old. While Brady will miss Julian Edelman whose suspended for the first four games of the season, Chris Hogan, Eric Decker,Cordarrelle Patterson, and Rob Gronkowski should all make up for the fantasy football production.
(3) Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Wilson threw the football last season a career high 553 times for 34 touchdowns and almost eclipsed 4,000-plus yards (3,983 yards) passing for a third season in a row. He also rushed for 586 yards and scored three rushing touchdowns. There is nothing to indicate the Seahawks will resort to a run first offense. The team even added veteran wide receiver Brandon Marshall this offseason as an additional target. Expect the Seahawks offense to continue running through Russell Wilson, making him a top fantasy football quarterback again.
(4) DeShaun Watson, Texans
Before going down with a season ending ACL injury in 2017, DeShaun Watson passed for an average of 266 yards and 2.8 touchdowns through six starts. Tack on 253 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs and one can see Watson was on track to post amazing fantasy football numbers as a rookie, had he stayed healthy. While the league finally has NFL game tape on Watson, it’s difficult not to recommend him as a borderline top-five fantasy option at quarterback. The upside is just too great.
(5) Andrew Luck, Colts
So far, so good. Based on reports from camp, Andrew Luck’s shoulder seems to be holding up fine and he looks better than ever. When healthy, he can throw the football for 4,000-plus yards and 30-plus TDs. With a young group of running backs and an unproven defense, there’s plenty of reason to think Luck will be chucking the ball downfield to his favorite receiver, T.Y. Hilton, often this season. Side note: get a good backup.
(6) Cam Newton, Panthers
Newton led quarterbacks in rushing last season with 754 yards and 6 TDs. However, his 3,302 passing yards, 22 TDs, and 16 interceptions were wanting. Enter new offensive coordinator Norv Turner whose goal is to make Newton a better passing quarterback by changing up pass plays between a variety of drops and options. Newton is expected to continue running the football. The arrow is pointing up but will Newton follow.
(7) Drew Brees, Saints
The 2017 season was the first time in seven seasons Drew Brees hadn’t averaged more than 300-plus yards passing per game, his least yards passing (4,334) in his twelve years with the Saints. The 23 pass TDs he threw in 2017 was the least he’s tossed since he played with the Chargers in 2003. Otherwise, Brees has been a perennial top-five fantasy football quarterback. While the Saints are expected to continue running the football a lot this season, don’t discount Brees. He’ll be a great “value pick” this fantasy football season with many choosing the sexier picks. He should do better than his 2017 touchdown numbers.
(8) Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
In three of the past five seasons including last season, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for over 4,200 yards and around 30 TDs. Roethlisberger hasn’t played a complete 16-game season since 2014. So, if you select Roethlisberger, you must take the good with the bad and have a solid back-up on your bench just in case.
(9) Kirk Cousins, Vikings
Under new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo (formerly of the Eagles), Kirk Cousins is expected to be a more effective fantasy football quarterback. Cousins will have numerous offensive weapons in the passing attack including Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. More important, he’ll have a better running game which will keep defenses honest. His 4,083 yards passing and 27 touchdowns in 2017 is a reasonable floor for 2018.
(10) Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo made an immediate impact once he was given the opportunity to start for the 49ers last season. In his final five games as a starter, he averaged 308 yards per game. And while he scored just six passing TDs (two in each of the last two games) and one rushing TD over that span, he looked good doing it. He’ll also be helped in the passing game by running back Jerick McKinnon. While five games is a small sample size, with an entire offseason to better learn Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Garoppolo has a lot of upside making him deserving of a top ten ranking among quarterbacks in fantasy football.
(11) Matthew Stafford, Lions
Based on his last five seasons, Matthew Stafford is a virtual lock for 4,200 yards passing, or more, and around 27 touchdowns. Neither the offense nor the personnel differs greatly from last season. Stafford remains a top fantasy football option in 2018.
(12) Carson Wentz, Eagles
Before going down with a season ending knee injury, Carson Wentz compiled 3,296 yards and 33 TDs in 14 Games, including four 4 TD games in the final seven weeks of the season. Wentz has a great receiving group and should top 3,500 yards and 30-plus TDs this season. His recovery from his knee injury has been a concern, so monitor the news through the preseason. For now, Wentz is expected to play Week 1 and round out the starters in twelve-team fantasy football leagues.
The Top QB2 Fantasy Football Back-Ups
If you’re in a 16-team fantasy football league, you’ll be interested in the next four quarterbacks. Each has a great set of receivers and solid running games. How much they score through the air is the only issue.
(13) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
(14) Philip Rivers, Chargers
(15) Matt Ryan, Falcons
(16) Jared Goff, Rams
(17) Derek Carr, Raiders
(18) Marcus Mariota, Titans
(19) Eli Manning, Giants
(20) Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
(21) Dak Prescott, Cowboys
(22) Alex Smith, Redskins
(23) Case Keenum, Broncos
(24) Andy Dalton, Bengals
Best of the Rest for 16 Team
Fantasy Football Leagues
These are players whose consistency over a sixteen game season is an issue.
(25) Tyrod Taylor, Browns
(26) Mitch Trubisky, Bears
(27) Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
(28) Sam Bradford, Cardinals
(29) Blake Bortles, Jaguars
(30) Josh McCown, Jets
(31) Joe Flacco, Ravens
(32) AJ McCarron, Bills