Ourlads Stories

Qualitative over Quantitative Grades in the NFL Draft

Dave Syvertsen
12/03/2024 9:34AM ET

The term 'value' is thrown around often when it comes to building an NFL roster in the salary cap era. Getting the most bang for your buck is the goal of building through the economic limitations. Value defined is “a fair return or equivalent in services” (Merriam-Webster). When it comes to NFL rosters and the NFL draft, what are the five most valuable positions? Otherwise known as the "premium" positions?

Quarterback
Edge Defender
Offensive Tackle
Wide Receiver
Cornerback

Naturally, because of how expensive it is to pay a top-shelf talent at any one of those five spots, teams ideally attack those positions early in the draft. It is a very cost-effective way to pay the guys that should impact the game the most. For example, a key reason why Buffalo and Kansas City could develop quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen over the first five years of their careers respectively was the fact they were paying the highest paid position in the sport below-market value. Whether it was the defense, the offensive line, or playmakers – both teams were top ten in the league in spending in one of these areas each season of the rookie deals.

Similar to my article last week explaining why Ashton Jeanty should be a top fifteen pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, I believe the market needs to self-correct. Simply put, the engineers of NFK rosters need to follow the grade more than attaching themselves to historical data that does have missing variables that are essential. The draft is about bringing in the best players. Scout first, use analytics second. Not the other way around. Here are three players (in addition to Jeanty) that I believe should be drafted in the first fifteen picks next April that do NOT play the premium positions.

Tyler Warren – TE

Penn State

Productive. Versatile. Big. Fast. Physical. Warren is everything a team wants in a tight end. At 6’6/260, he is expected to run in the 4.6 range and was an elite athletic tester in high school. The former high school quarterback and all-region basketball player ranks third nationally in catches by a tight end (81) and second in yards (978). He has scored as a receiver, rusher, and even a passer in week 2024. His elite hands (just one drop) and dynamic ability after the catch can have a Brock Bowers-type impact within a pro passing game right away.

Malaki Starks – S

Georgia

We have not seen a safety taken in the top ten since 2017 (Jamal Adams, 6th overall). That could be a result of lack of talent, sure. But when considering names like Kyle Hamilton, Derwin James, and Minkah Fitzpatrick have been drafted since then, one has to believe positional value is at least part of the reason they slipped draft weekend. Starks is going to be one of the elites of the elite athletes in the 2025 Draft. Since day one of year one, he has been a key cog in the always-talented Georgia defense. He’s been top four in tackles on the team each of the past three seasons and his five career interceptions will carry weight in the eyes of decision makers. Starks is a natural leader that coaches will want both on the field and in the locker room.

Mason Graham – DT

Michigan

Let me be clear. We all know everybody has a top 15 grade on Graham at the very worst. The reason he is on this list? If a team that does not need a quarterback is at number one overall, my point is that Graham could be in play for that top spot. Defensive tackles that can get quick and sudden pressure on the passer presents the same value to the front as an edge defender in my eyes. Add in that fact a guy like this can impact the running game at a higher level than any edge defender and there you have another reason why Graham can be considered for the top overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The combination of size, body awareness, and explosiveness mesh well with his wrestling background to create the ideal combination of traits to be a top-shelf NFL difference maker. We’ve seen defensive tackles chose in the top three with success (Quinnen Williams and Ndamukong Suh), but the last time one went number one overall? 1997 (Dan Wilkinson by Cincinnati).

The point of the NFL Draft is to build the roster with players you can build around. Guys that make the team better. The ones that give the franchise an identity. As we have seen numerous times in history, they come in many shapes and sizes and more importantly, at all positions. While positional value can and should break ties in the grading/stacking process, compromising the quality of a prospect is a spit in the face to the entire premise of the evaluation process. Equations don’t win games. The right football players do.